Will Taiwan successfully demonstrate an anti-satellite capability before 2035?
Basic
1
Ṁ102035
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This would presumably be a rocket/missile, but doesn't have to be. The key point is whether Taiwan credibly demonstrates the ability to disable a satellite (by actually doing so).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
11% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
38% chance
Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030?
10% chance
Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
17% chance
[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
32% chance
Will Taiwan buy any Air Defence System from Israel before 2035?
70% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
45% chance