During 2024, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
Basic
5
Ṁ145Dec 31
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
US ship: Navy or Coast Guard
Chinese ship: Navy, Coast Guard or Maritime Militia
Clash: physical contact or projectile weapons fired (INCLUDING WATER CANNON). Reports of sonic or laser weapons fired will also cause a YES resolution
This is a deliberately 'low-bar' market primarily testing whether the US and China have any appetite for conflict with each other over the Chinese-Filipino Sabina Shoal dispute.
I will not bet in this market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
33% chance
During 2024, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Second Thomas Shoal?
9% chance
Will there be a clash between Taiwanese and Chinese Coast Guard ships in the waters around Kinmen in 2024?
32% chance
Did a Chinese submarine suffer a serious accident in 2023?
39% chance
Will there be a collision between US and Chinese navy vessels by the end of 2024?
10% chance
Will China's Navy or Coast Guard seize or sink a Philippine boat by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?
43% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2026?
44% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2025?
15% chance
Will an Iranian naval asset be sunk by hostile action in 2024?
36% chance