Invitation for participants to surface reports they think are relevant to resolution

@vitamind I want to make sure you understand that the submarine that reportedly sank in port this year does not count for this question.

@JoshuaWilkes I am, thank you for letting me know though!

This market may be run by a Chinese spy to see what other nations know.

@KevinLobLaw luckily you are throwing them off the scent with a carefully crafted know-nothing persona

Does the question not resolve until 2025 even if sufficient evidence for a Yes comes to light before then?

@Panfilo no, if sufficient evidence comes to light for a YES resolution it will resolve

@Panfilo I should say, because the description does sort of imply that I would leave it open until 2025 regardless, that I'd apply a much higher standard of belief for an earlier resolution. In other words, I'd have to be highly confident that it had happened rather than just thinking that it was more likely than not.

@JoshuaWilkes Just adding on to the pile, Radio Free Asia in this article mentions that Taiwan media started running its own accident explanations after the Times report, based on sources in Beijing. So, even with questions in the first story, the overall likelihood has increased since now both sides are leaking an incident, and simply disagreeing over the incident's details/blame. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/china-submarine-deaths-10092023041959.html

Did the Chinese submarine accident happen?

Big questions remain over the alleged deaths on a Chinese nuclear submarine in August.

@Panfilo this is a very good and useful article, thank you for sharing it

I think you can go ahead and resolve this one, now.

@BrianCaulfield how come?

@NathanpmYoung https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12589429/chinese-sailors-trap-yellow-sea.html

@BrianCaulfield at the moment we are nowhere near a YES resolution.

@KevinLobLaw this is a pretty good summary of where I am at with this market:

https://www.newsweek.com/china-submarine-rumor-uk-intelligence-report-taiwan-1832679

What I would additionally note is that whilst the Hindustan Times and the Eurasian Times that are linked below are clearly reporting on the Mail article rather than corroborating it, the (British)Times also ran the story and it's less clear whether they are just repeating the claims of the Mail directly or have their own source

@JoshuaWilkes You are like the republicans. You don’t want to get to yes. Lol

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/sunk-chinese-nuclear-armed-submarine-could-lead/

Underwater Nuclear Disaster: Why Alleged Sinking Of China’s Nuke Sub Is Bad New For Indo-Pacific Waters

The plot surrounding the alleged sinking of a Chinese nuclear submarine is thickening, with the latest United Kingdom publication contending that the platform went down after getting stuck in the trap laid out for the US submarines. The purported incident, denied vehemently by China, underscores nuclear submarines’ risks. Philippines To Track, Chase & Hunt Chinese […]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/55-chinese-sailors-dead-after-vessel-stuck-in-its-own-trap-report-101696410869532.html

55 Chinese sailors dead after vessel stuck in its own ‘trap’: Report

A leaked intelligence report said captain of Chinese Navy's vessel and 21 other officers were among those dead. | World News

Market with much tighter resolution criteria

https://manifold.markets/2eb7/will-china-officially-confirm-the-s?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

Will China officially confirm the submarine accident in 2023?

41% chance. The rumored submarine accident is detailedly reported by DailyMail. Will China admit the fact that a submarine incident happened and killed some crews? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12589429/chinese-sailors-trap-yellow-sea.html If any Chinese state owned/controlled media outlet report the incident as fact or Chinese centrsl government confirms it, this resolves to YES. The detail of incident can be different. The important part is that a submairne accident killed some crews under water and it has been hidden from the public for some time. [link preview]

Curious to see how or if this will actually resolve, because the specifics of the accident might still allow the PLAN to physically recover and repair 093-417, even if such an accident, which allegedly killed the entire crew, did occur.

So we might be reliant on the PLAN to acknowledge the accident to confirm, which.. well.. it's China(town), Jake.

@ChrisMills I actually think that if the rumours are even remotely accurate I, as a reasonable person, will be confident in saying I believe such an incident took place.

a) it's entirely possible the PLAN would acknowledge it happened, as they did in 2003

b) it would become an open secret in democratic defense communities (it seems vanishingly unlikely the US wouldn't know it had happened)

c) even if news of it were suppressed in China, the loss of an entire crew of submariners would cast a shadow through society that Western media in the country would report on

@JoshuaWilkes Well, my response to Point A would be that this is a very different China than 2003-China, so I would not expect them to be forthright about any perceived military failures, and my response to Point B and Point C is just to wonder whether or not it would get reported on enough by 2025 to necessarily resolve the market as YES.

In terms of circumstantial evidence, it certainly seems to be like there's enough there right now to strongly suspect the rumors that it happened are true, what with Xi Jinping disappearing without explanation before he was supposed to give his BRICs speech in South Africa, and Li Shangfu getting purged shortly thereafter.

Interested to see if this reporting from the DailyMail gets fleshed out elsewhere before the market closes, though.

https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1709287591122796611?s=20

Taiwan says the latest incident didn't happen, which convinces me. And the base rate for CN submarine accidents is... <5% per year maybe?

@Capresis I haven't been able to track down the original source, but in the other market I reported that Taiwan now says 'no comment'

@JoshuaWilkes https://manifold.markets/BTE/has-a-chinese-submarine-crashed-in?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

Has a Chinese submarine crashed in the Strait of Taiwan?

10% chance. Xi skipped an important speech this week at the BRIC summit and there are lots of rumors this could be why. Some say the entire Chinese crew was killed. Resolves YES if confirmed true by the end of the year.

@JoshuaWilkes https://www.eurasiantimes.com/pla-submarine-missing-chinas-defense-minister-underground/?amp

PLA Submarine 'Missing', China's Defense Minister Underground, Speculations On Mishap Reignites

In August 2023, unconfirmed reports swirled about a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine meeting a serious mishap while transiting the Taiwan Strait, and all hands were reportedly lost. China’s Defense Ministry remained tight-lipped about it, but its defense minister Li Shangfu has become conspicuous by his absence from the public eye for two weeks now. Experts observing China’s […]