Will there be a new ongoing major war (10,000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024? | Manifold

Will there be a new ongoing major war (10,000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?

Plus

33

Ṁ13k

resolved Jul 13

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If an ongoing major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before market close, resolves yes. The war in Sudan is already on the list as of market creation, and so does not count for this market.

Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with <10,000 deaths as of market creation, if it is promoted to a proper war (and has a start of conflict in 2023 or 2024).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Matt ParlmerboughtṀ250YES

@mattparlmer Something in particular you're betting on?

predictedYES

@Joshua Entropy sadly

What is the source for determining “new” (ACLD, COW, etc) and counts as death? Does it have to be battlefield or can it be from disease, starvation etc that accompany war? Last does Israel-Gaza count as “new”

Non-major war version

Related questions

Will a new major war break out in 2024?

-5% 1d5% chance

What will be the top 10 most viewed Wikipedia articles of 2024?

Will we see any major wars before the end of 2024? 🤔

Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?

Will a case of terrorism be added to this Wiki page with the year of 2024?

What will be the most popular Wikipedia article in 2024?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?

Will the United States be directly involved in a war by the end of 2028?

Will any wars are going and end of 2025 are go ?

Related questions

Will a new major war break out in 2024?

What will be the most popular Wikipedia article in 2024?

What will be the top 10 most viewed Wikipedia articles of 2024?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Will we see any major wars before the end of 2024? 🤔

By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?

Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?

Will the United States be directly involved in a war by the end of 2028?

Will a case of terrorism be added to this Wiki page with the year of 2024?

Will any wars are going and end of 2025 are go ?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules