Trump Wins 2024 x Will the United States abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028? | Manifold

Trump Wins 2024 x Will the United States abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?

Plus

30

Ṁ4015

2028

34%

Trump wins 2024 AND the United States abandons its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028

62%

Trump wins 2024 AND the United States does not abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028

1.9%

Trump loses 2024 AND the United States abandons its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028

2%

Trump loses 2024 AND the United States does not abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028

Live-updating visualization of the conditional probabilities and correlation coefficient:

The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:

/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres

/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-united-states-abandon-its-117c19944677

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#🇨🇳 China

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I thought Biden was the one eroding strategic ambiguity?

reposted

I've used this extremely cool tool to visualize the probabilities here! Apparently people think this is something where Trump might really behave differently from Biden or other possible presidents!

Matt ParlmerboughtṀ15 YES

@mattparlmer You think Trump is likely to acknowledge Taiwan if he wins?

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