What will be the outcome of the Pivot? | Manifold

What will be the outcome of the Pivot?

Plus

45

Ṁ7089

Jan 1

21%

If C happens, The US Government tells the site and/or the payment processor that they must stop doing The Pivot, or there will be serious legal consequences, within 6 months

26%

If C happens, the payment processor decides to stop serving the site and the site is unable to easily find another good payment processor, within 6 months

27%

If C happens, The site stops doing The Pivot for at least one month, within 6 months

86%

If C Happens, The site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, 6 months later

21%

If C happens, the site has huge financial benefit from The Pivot, either directly from profit or through fundraising, 6 months later

33%

If C happens, the site has incurred serious costs from The Pivot, like very expensive legal battles, fines, reputational damage etc, 6 months later

48%

If C happens, nothing hugely dramatic has happened either good or bad and the site is overall in a similar position to pre-Pivot, 6 months later

77%

The site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, on January 1st, 2025

53%

If on January 1st 2025, the site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, then The site has huge financial benefit from The Pivot, either directly from profit or through fundraising.

If you would like to be extra helpful, please write down your probabilities for each event occurring so we can average them.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

@Joshua looks like A, B, & C can resolve YES. the announcement & official launch happened, sweeps markets are resolving & withdrawals are enabled

@Ziddletwix @Joshua

@Ziddletwix Legendary market.

Will The Pivot be a major topic in a presidential debate in 2024?

There's no topics. Ammon Style.

would like to see this without the devs betting on it

@strutheo just take their prize points

@Odoacre monopoly money!

reposted

Subsidized 700

Market is public now

Two new options

I have now linked the market to staff.

Current odds after a few staff trades for posterity:

@Joshua They call me Mr. Scrooge, because I'm always in the money

Polls for G-J conditional on C:

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