I will resolve this market NO at the end of July unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES (Hard Mode)

Ṁ51k

Aug 1

chance

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This market is like Ben's market except that I am a heartless bastard and you won't sway me so easily:

Obviously I precommit not to negotiate with terrorists, no threats you make will impact my decision in either direction. I can also ban you if you violate the community guidelines, so let's keep this friendly.

I could imagine myself being bribed, but my price is high. I was following Ben's market's comments and I think nothing that was tried there will work here, so you'll have to be original. I am subsidizing this market and betting it down as additional precommitment.

Good luck.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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25 Comments

64 Holders

125 Trades

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This is a long shot, but are you gay and do you live in Australia

bought Ṁ1 NO at 7%

It's a funnier and more interesting outcome to resolve this to yes.

bought Ṁ100 YES from 7% to 8%

2 traders bought Ṁ101 NO

Think about how funny it would be if we had like ten of these and they all ended up going yes

bought Ṁ1 NO at 7%

opened a Ṁ5 YES at 3% order

why did you put "I cooperate in prisoner's dilemmas" in your bio if you're already committing to defecting here?

@KJW_01294 I am pretty sure it is cooperative to do what I say I'm going to do

@Joshua the way I see it is: suppose we line up $1.5k of charitable donations but only if you cooperate. You retain a maximal reputational benefit to defect and say NO, but you and others could still benefit a little when you cooperate by saying YES.

The prisoner’s dilemma isn’t about being true to your word, it’s about letting your own selfishness obstruct a more optimal path for everyone. I’m just curious when that aspect of it changed in your thinking?

bought Ṁ150 NO at 6%

@KJW_01294 Yeah this is not persuasive

@KJW_01294 I just don’t think modeling this market as a prisoners dilemma is that useful of a thing to do.

What arguments will Joshua find persuasive, if any? https://manifold.markets/KJW_01294/if-joshs-persuasion-market-resolves

What is your price to be bribed?

@GauravYadav Higher than anyone here would be willing to pay, I think.

@GauravYadav Plus, there is the potential for counter-bribes. Whatever you offer, us NOs can band together and double it.

I will not have sex with you if you resolve NO.

PERSUASION PLEDGE TRACKER IS LIVE (please edit responsibly or I will turn off editing by everyone and have to do it manually)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PdA9hp7CghQR_GiilNLGwYTp9toRA4Ti8sb8HM9JMas/edit?usp=sharing

I'm realizing this could be very chaotic if people start changing each others' cells so I'm actually changing it to comment only... you can comment here or on the google doc and I will manually add things!

@bens I put a comment on the board for my pledge

LMAO

@bens Any advice?

@Joshua ummm... I have advice for the persuaders but none for you haha

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 5% order

@bens I notice you have bought NO shares yourself... hmmm interesting

@bens ooohh, what advice would you give us ?

/Odoacre/will-joshuas-i-will-resolve-no-mark

Who do you trust more ?

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

In reliance on your commitment to resolve this NO, I am purchasing a fairly large NO position. If you end up resolving YES it will significantly damage my opinion on your credibility for all future commitments you make. If some extreme circumstance convinces you to resolve YES anyways I would expect you to at least reimburse NO holders for their losses.

Would you consider rating manipulation against the community guidelines?

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