Resolves when Israel and Hamas (or whichever authority governs the Gaza strip) agree to another ceasefire that lasts for at least a week or (without a formal agreement) large-scale fighting in Gaza stops for at least 1 month with reputable media sources indicating that this pause is seen as an end to the war (as opposed to a temporary break for a holiday or similar)
Note that the market resolves to when when the ceasefire begins, though the market will not close until a week/month after this date
Will add months and extend the market as needed
Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The start date of the ceasefire will be determined using the Israeli time zone.
Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the ceasefire to be considered broken, there needs to be large scale fighting and preferably acknowledgement from at least 1 involved party that the ceasefire is over. Isolated incidents (such as individual strikes on Palestinians approaching IDF positions) do not constitute a break of the ceasefire.
1,000
3.00@JoshCohen
How high is your threshold to consider a break of the ceasire?
I mean, would events such as killing Palestinians who approach IDF count as NO? Or would you require a more formal declaration of ceasefire break and large military operations to resume?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/3-palestinians-said-killed-in-idf-strike-after-apparently-nearing-troops-in-gaza-city/
@MiguelLM No, there needs to be large scale fighting and preferrably acknowledgement from at least 1 involved party that the ceasefire is over
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpqv2qjg5vvo.amp
Netanyahu doesn't want a deal, and Trump supports him.
"Hamasโ response to the US proposal demanded changes to three key areas, the source said: extending the ceasefire past 60 days, humanitarian assistance, and the positions to which Israeli troops will withdraw."