Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? | Manifold

Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100?

Plus

45

Ṁ2558

2100

55%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Uploading: scanning the structure of a brain in sufficient resolution and using it as input to a simulation which results in consciousness similar to the original brain.

Related:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Long-term Markets

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

I made a similar market with the intention on being more in-depth that works in 3 year intervals. https://manifold.markets/ThePhilosopher/will-uploaded-intelligence-human-br?r=VGhlUGhpbG9zb3BoZXI

Define similar.

predictedNO

@capybara refer to the dictionary

Human whole brain emulation before 2100?

53% chance. This market resolves Yes if, by the beginning of 2100, at least 1 person has used whole brain emulation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) successfully (defined arbitrarily by >75% consensus of philosophers of mind that psychological continuity and identity is preserved).

Sorry for the replicate

Related questions

Will Uploaded Intelligence (human brain upload) exist by 2050?

Conditional on no AGI, will a human brain be uploaded before 2053?

Human whole brain emulation before 2100?

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030?

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Will a successful human brain uploading technology be developed before January 1st, 2040?

Will we have a reliable way of uploading people's minds onto computers by 2030?

Related questions

Will Uploaded Intelligence (human brain upload) exist by 2050?

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Conditional on no AGI, will a human brain be uploaded before 2053?

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Human whole brain emulation before 2100?

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Will a successful human brain uploading technology be developed before January 1st, 2040?

Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030?

Will we have a reliable way of uploading people's minds onto computers by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules