What score will GPT-5 get on the SAT? | Manifold

What score will GPT-5 get on the SAT?

Plus

21

Ṁ608

2027

1,542

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to the first credible news story about GPT-5's performance on the SAT

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1,000

and

3.00

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bought Ṁ1 YES

google's latest build of gemini reached ~parity with GPT4 despite probably throwing way more compute at it

bought Ṁ0 YES

there's probably alpha in making bets just to smooth out the curve of numeric markets, with zero information about anything else

bought Ṁ1 YES

my 90% confidence interval is 1430-1500

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What will I get on the October 4 SAT?

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What will be true about GPT-5?

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Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

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