At the beginning of each year level 5 self driving is not available the previous year will resolve to NO.
If level 5 self driving is available year 2028. Year 2028 and all years after will resolve to YES.
Level 5 self driving. Needs to be available in US and Europe for normal consumers. Should not cost much more than a normal expensive car. In 2024 this would be something like $200k.
Level 5 self driving means:
- The car is capable of performing all driving tasks under all conditions without any human intervention.
- The car can handle all driving scenarios, including extreme weather conditions, complex urban environments, and any other unpredictable situations. It is expected to perform as well or better than a human driver.
- Passengers in a Level 5 autonomous vehicle are not expected to take control of the vehicle at any point. There is no need for human monitoring.
Needs to be available for private ownership, OR, robo-taxis are widely available, in both urban and rural areas. But these taxis should then be as good or better than normal drivers.
Available in select cities does NOT count.
Example: One should be able to get into their car in any parking spot in any city in US and be able to go to any other parking spot in any other city in US without touching the controls. In any weather a human could drive in, even during construction and/or other unforseen scenarios.
1,000
3.00If some European countries approve it later than others, does it need all countries in Europe to approve it or would 95%, 90% or 50% or some other threshold of countries/area/population be sufficient?
50% of area/population is probably too low but requiring 100% seems too onerous: Suppose some small place like Monaco perhaps it doesn't have sufficient roads to provide training data when there are some strange different road laws such that there is a long delay getting from 99.9% of area/population of Europe to 100%
Thoughts on social/cultural changes of reducing human-in-the-loop systems to automated systems - do new warranties/guarantees by a company include human safety considerations on top of ensuring the full functionality of a product - and will we start assessing a car by more human centric metrics instead of manufacturing specifications? Vehicle licensing for higher priority travelling?
Europe and US only required. Random parking spot in Texas to random parking spot in LA. Or random parking spot in France to random parking spot in Germany with as good or better success rate than human would be level 5. It should be able to board a ferry if that is required.
In any weather and road condition a human could.
Boarding a ferry is one thing - does it need to be able to buy a ticket for the ferry, and get that ticket validated before boarding, or is human intervention OK in that case? I could see "unable to buy a ticket to a ferry that was commissioned in the 1980's and has no electronic ticket-buying infrastructure, you have to buy a paper ticket from a person and then show the paper to another person before boarding" delaying a resolution for a while, if the car has to be able to buy the ticket. https://www.howderfamily.com/blog/usa-islands-ferry/
@JohanNorberg so this market is specifically about private ownership of level 5 vehicles? Otherwise this would resolve YES whenever Waymo gets approved for level 5 operations in any European city?
Thanks, I've added clarification to the description.
Yes, this is about private ownership (or whatever replaces private ownership in the future).
It would absolutely NOT count as level 5 self driving if it's just available in select cities. Also the self driving should be as good or better than humans and not require human intervention.
If there is some special area or city where self driving is outlawed. That’s fine.
But the idea is I should be able to start in one country on some obscure road not even on google maps and it should be able to take me to some place in another country, crossing bridges, boarding ferries, in any weather or road construction that a human could drive in and I should not have to monitor or intervene.