Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Monkey D. Luffy, the protagonist of One Piece, is confirmed to have died in the official manga or anime series by December 31, 2025. The confirmation must come from canonical sources, such as the manga authored by Eiichiro Oda or the anime produced by Toei Animation. If no such event occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

Monkey D. Luffy is the central character in One Piece, a long-running manga and anime series created by Eiichiro Oda. Throughout the series, Luffy has faced numerous life-threatening situations, including battles against formidable foes and the use of techniques that strain his body. Notably, during the Impel Down arc, Luffy was poisoned and underwent a treatment that reportedly shortened his lifespan by approximately ten years. Additionally, his Gear Second technique has been noted to put significant stress on his body, potentially affecting his longevity. Despite these challenges, Luffy has consistently survived and continued his journey to become the Pirate King.

Considerations

• Series Status: As of July 2025, One Piece is in its final saga, with the conclusion anticipated in the near future. This has led to increased speculation about the fates of main characters, including Luffy.

• Author's Intentions: Eiichiro Oda has expressed a desire to conclude the series with a celebratory party, suggesting a positive ending. This has led some fans to believe that Luffy will survive until the end of the series.

• Historical Precedents: In One Piece, other powerful characters, such as Gol D. Roger and Whitebeard, have died due to illness or battle. This narrative pattern raises questions about whether Luffy might face a similar fate.

• Medical Interventions: Characters like Tony Tony Chopper, the crew's doctor, and Trafalgar D. Law, who possesses the Ope-Ope Fruit capable of performing the "Immortality Operation," could potentially play roles in addressing any life-threatening conditions Luffy might face.

Given these factors, traders should consider both the narrative trends of the series and the author's statements when making predictions.