50% at 20 traders

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1774428954130067840
Totally not a resolution to this market

@Fedor lol I won’t but very funny

@james Which Wikipedia article are you referring? The ongoing conflict as outlined here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war or Israel invading Gaza, or something else?

In other words, how do you define the end of the war? Seems to me this conflict will go on for a few more decades.

@DavidS The Israel invasion of Gaza.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)

I think both of these are going to be much later than people think, so hard call.

@ShakedKoplewitz Eh, Expected war time is say another 6-12 months, expected remaining term is another two years. Calling it for Bibi outlasting the war.

One of those cases where I really want the answer to be yes, but I know it's probably overpriced because everyone else is hoping that too 😕