How low will 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates get in 2024? | Manifold

How low will 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates get in 2024?

Basic

7

Ṁ1171

Dec 31

1%

Higher than 6.5%

65%

6.0-6.5%

33%

5.5-6.0%

1.6%

5.0-5.5%

1%

Lower than 5.0%

I will resolve this based on St. Louis Fed data - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

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Is this the minimum throughout the year, or the value at the end of the year?

@DanMan314 Good question: To clarify, I will resolve based on the lowest value during the year.

@JJL Thanks!

I'm pretty new to this. Thanks for the note. I'll look into it.

Uhh, this should be a linked market. Only one of these can be true

@DavidFWatson https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/how-low-will-30-year-fixed-rate-mor-460a2fca2084?r=RGF2aWRGV2F0c29u

@DavidFWatson Does linked mean that a trader can only bet on one outcome? If so, why shouldn't someone be able to bet on a range wider than 0.5 percentage points if they think that the total probability for the wider range is wrong?

@JeffLobo no, it means that only one can resolve to true. And I think I used the wrong term anyway. "How many answers will be chosen", for this it should be "only one"

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