Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 1, 2035, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) trains on all lines typically operate without any onboard staff, including train operators or other personnel. The resolution will be based on official announcements from BART or credible news sources confirming the absence of onboard staff. If no such confirmation is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

BART is undertaking significant modernization efforts, including the implementation of a Communications-Based Train Control (CBTC) system. This system aims to increase train frequency and capacity by allowing trains to operate more closely together. The CBTC project, awarded to Hitachi Rail STS USA, Inc. in 2020, is expected to be completed by 2029. (bart.gov)

Additionally, BART has introduced its "Fleet of the Future," featuring new train cars designed for improved reliability and passenger experience. As of September 2023, these new trains have become the primary vehicles in operation. (masstransitmag.com)

Considerations

While the CBTC system enhances automation, BART has not announced plans to eliminate onboard staff entirely. The transition to fully autonomous operations would require overcoming regulatory hurdles, ensuring technological reliability, and achieving public acceptance. Historical incidents and safety considerations may also influence decisions regarding onboard staffing. Therefore, while automation is advancing, the timeline for achieving fully staffless operations by 2035 remains uncertain.