Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030?
Plus
17
Ṁ8202030
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Bidding 5 mana as 1.5% just seems too low (even though I have a highly positive opinion of Scott); public figures get enough extra scrutiny and Scott already has a hit piece about him in a large newspaper. He presumably doesn't have the power to evade charges. EA, Poly, and many of his beliefs are counter cultural.
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?
26% chance
Will a Hylion executive be convicted of fraud before 2030?
40% chance
Will Elon Musk be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
27% chance
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
5% chance
Will Scott Alexander be a guest on any podcast whatsoever before 2028?
28% chance
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
67% chance