Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire? | Manifold

Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

Plus

84

Ṁ13k

2050

61%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES once Elon Musk is listed by Forbes or a similar sources as a trillionaire.

Resolves NO once someone else is listed by Forbes or a similar sources as a trillionaire, or Elon Musk experiences information-theoretic death.

(Denoted in nominal USD.)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ30 NO

I think the ketamine might melt his brain before then

Related: https://manifold.markets/robotnik/will-elon-musk-be-worth-more-than-1?r=cm9ib3RuaWs

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

48% chance. Resolution Criteria - (1) Major publication of record reporting - NYTimes / Financial Times / Wall Street Journal / Etc (2) Should it be mathmatically demonstrable (ie, shares reported in latest SC 13G/A multiplied by current stock price, etc) (3) Elon's Death - Upon his death if to that point the market has not resolved 'YES' already, it will resolve 'NO'.

Does this also resolve NO conditional on Musk dying?

@LukeBousfield Yeah that would count too.

Related questions

Who will be the first trillionaire?

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Who will be the world's first trillionaire?

Will Elon Musk be the first trillionare ?

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

When will Elon Musk's net worth surpass $1 trillion?

Will Elon Musk's net worth fall below $150 billion before 2030?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2025?

Elon Musk will be world's wealthiest person on January 1, 2026

Related questions

Who will be the first trillionaire?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

When will Elon Musk's net worth surpass $1 trillion?

Who will be the world's first trillionaire?

Will Elon Musk's net worth fall below $150 billion before 2030?

Will Elon Musk be the first trillionare ?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2025?

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Elon Musk will be world's wealthiest person on January 1, 2026

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules