Will a civilian be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
Plus
16
Ṁ1257Jan 1
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://futureoflife.org/video/slaughterbots/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STM_Kargu
Must be capable of killing one person in a crowd, in a person-sized attack.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will anyone in the United States be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will a fully autonomous AI-powered US military drone kill a human being without express human direction before 2025?
20% chance
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
28% chance
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
61% chance
Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will an AI model kill, or be used by/enable a non-state actor to kill, a US citizen/resident by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
17% chance
Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?
31% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
41% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
23% chance