This is a permanent market; it will never resolve. The goal is for you to use it to express your own opinions and/or turn a profit by predicting other people's opinions. Bet YES if you're in favor of the subject of the market or believe other people will come to have a more favorable opinion of it in the future, bet NO if you view the subject of the market unfavorably or believe others will come to view it as such.
This one is about the concept of permanent stock markets on Manifold.
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My suggestion is to resolve to the approval rating at a specified time. That way it does actually work as a prediction market that resolves to some real-world external data, and avoids all the problems of permanent stocks. Example: https://manifold.markets/a/what-will-mrgirls-approval-rating-b-54a2495ce8fc
@a exchanging something that's depreciating in value for something that's appreciating in value over time
@firstuserhere that is true for real world stocks which are tied to actual corporations; Manifold stocks dont necessarily appreciate in value over time
@a Stocks aren't just tied to actual corporations, they are the corporation (each stock represents a part of the business). Manifold Mana can be used to signal beliefs and opinions, or to calculate things, but unused, it is worthless, and will definitely depreciate in value, so may or may not appreciate sounds like not so bad of an option
@firstuserhere Stocks represent a legal claim to control a business and a right to receive dividends, but there are occasional cases (such as a recent case of American ownership of a Chinese company where the CEO stayed in control after being voted out) where it becomes clear that a stock is not the corporation.
That said, neither of those statements even apply here, so really it’s a meaningless comparison.
@Gabrielle you're right about stocks, but i do think there's value in using mana to signal or correct self's beliefs and using it to test how accurate one's worldview is
Some condensed comments on Manifold “stocks” by Scott Alexander’s latest Mantic Monday post on ACX:
Prediction market users really want stocks.
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It’s hard to turn this vague idea into a real financial instrument.
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The current solution is to make no effort whatsoever to moor stocks to the real world and just hope they work out. This could work! It’s kind of like a Ponzi scheme or crypto token.
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But the 0% to 100% prediction scale is a bad match for stocks. If Elon started at 50% in 2000, then when Tesla made it big he surely should have doubled. And that brings him up to 100% and leaves nowhere for him to go. Also, people who bet on Elon Musk in 2000 might be miffed that their prescient choice only doubled their money. Probably the solution is some kind of cardinal number. But which one, and at what scale? Again, the lesson from crypto is that maybe it doesn’t matter. Just start at 10 or something or something and see where it ends up.