Isaac King's Guessing Game

Basic

Ṁ1853

6666

74%

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

53%

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

49%

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

48%

You're an effective altruist

42%

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

41%

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

40%

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

32%

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

20%

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

Resolved

YES

You're older than me (I'm 23)

Resolved

YES

Isaac likes experimenting

Resolved

YES

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

Resolved

YES

You've been in a desert once

Resolved

YES

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

Resolved

90%

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

Resolved

70%

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

Here's how this works:

Anyone can submit a free response option in the form of a guess that they have about me. It can be about anything - guesses about my music taste, my research interests, my sleep habits, etc.

If I don't want to answer the question, I'll resolve the option to N/A. (I'm generally pretty open about stuff.)

Otherwise, I'll resolve to YES if the guess was right, NO if the guess was wrong, and to PROB if it was partly right and partly wrong.

Between the option being submitted and me actually seeing and resolving it, you (and other traders) can spend mana to try to make a profit. If you're confident in a guess, buy YES - if you think someone has it wrong, buy NO. I won't bet on the options before resolving then.
I will generally wait for several people to trade in an option before resolving it.

This continues indefinitely, because the market doesn't close when I resolve an individual option.

Have at it!

Thanks to @firstuserhere for this market idea. You can find their original market here.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Fun

#Personal

#Personal guessing games

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1,000

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3.00

25 Comments

25 Holders

221 Trades

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I like them both. Dogs are more friendly. Cats might attack at any moment.

Difficult to remember. I once tried to read the whole Harry Potter series in a day (don't remember where I succeeded; may have only gotten to book 5 or 6), but that's not a single book. I suspect it hasn't happened, but I'm not sure.

You're younger than 30

@AmmonLam You have to submit it as an answer

I had skimmed a few pages, and put it on my list of "books I'd eventually like to read but realistically won't have time for any time soon".

Not that I remember at least.

I try to make more imaginative jokes than this.

Surprisingly though, none of my friends who frequently make rather unimaginative jokes about my name have done this either.

Fine in general, not fine when the minor was pressured into it or is not mentally capable of understanding the situation. (<12 years old or thereabouts.)

I was really tempted to misresolve this to YES.

I HAVE PERSONALLY NEVER THOUGHT THIS BUT I AM GOING TO START DOING SO NOW

Can't say for sure, but seems unlikely. I don't have many close friends, and they're all pretty reasonable people.

(I think this answer being at 60% was people correctly noting that I have many controversial beliefs, but failing to update on the fact that I'm very public about those beliefs, so I'll pretty quickly drive away anyone who finds that to be a deal-breaker.)

So much mana lying on the table for those willing to do some research...

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/what-programming-language-or-large

@IsaacKing I dare to say it's not that simple with 1.9K markets

No preference either way.

I know English, am decent but not fluent at French. I know bits and pieces of Hebrew and German, but not enough to be useful.

My house contains upwards of 100 stuffed animals, but none of them are mine.

Would be nice to convert mana into money, but buying a car seems like a very inefficient way to do that. I don't need a car nor have enough mana to afford one that way.

How was this only at 60%? You people aren't even trying.

My father's a professor of mathematics, my mother's a linguist, and my sister's studying criminal psychology. In a pure IQ sense I'm probably second after my dad.

@IsaacKing

"Think about" is a low bar, pretty much any "think about" answer will resolve YES.

Even this one?

@bohaska This might be a self-fulfilling prophecy

@bohaska Well I've thought about it now! How should I resolve answers that were false before I saw them, but true before I could click the "resolve" button?

@IsaacKing the classic "don't think of a purple elephant" scenario. power of suggestion makes for easy payouts I suppose?

@IsaacKing I'd resolve it false, if I were you

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