Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
➕
Plus
31
Ṁ1395
2100
74%
chance

The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

Similar markets for various amounts of warming:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Although Centigrade is customary it might be good to state the scale.

3 degrees of warming since what baseline date?

predictedYES

@GooglyEyes Whatever date people usually use when talking about these things

predictedNO

@IsaacKing So preindustrial temperatures?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules