How will this resolve if there's a collaboration between CNSA and SpaceX, for example? What makes a mission "CNSA / China"?

@Mqrius First, I think the wolf amendment + chinese nationalism would make it VERY difficult for that to happen. But, I think that would probably not count, as the tweet implies that chinese hardware would be exclusively used.

@Isaac228c If there's any particular reason you think this might happen I'd be very interested to hear!

@JoshuaWilkes I've got 2,000 at 70% if you want some more.

@Sailfish quite a long way from 55 to 70 😜

@Sailfish drop something at 60 and I'll come eat it up

@JoshuaWilkes If you're willing to buy at 62, once you account for whatever premium you want I assume your true probability is significantly higher. I'll meet you right smack in the middle at 66.

@Sailfish I've taken a chunk of it. Will leave some for the other nice people

Just to be clear, this means specifically a crewed landing?

@JacobDean Yes.

"By 2030" meaning including 2030, I guess from the market close date.