Will Catalonia leave Spain before 2040?
Plus
22
Ṁ11452040
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@GustavoMafra I would put the bar at defacto governance of the territory. Something like the situation with Taiwan wrt China - where anyone who wants to maintain relations with Spain can't recognize Catalonia, but for all other purposes it's an sovereign state - would resolve yes for instance.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Catalunya leave Spain by 2040?
15% chance
Will life expectancy in any province of Spain reach 90 years before 2040?
56% chance
Will Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
15% chance
Will Catalonia hold another independence vote by 2030?
27% chance
Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?
27% chance
Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030?
96% chance
Will Quebec leave Canada before 2040?
8% chance
Will Germany leave the EU before 2040?
6% chance
Will Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2050?
15% chance
Will Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2030?
6% chance