What is the discount rate on Manifold's Mana? (Part 2) | Manifold

What is the discount rate on Manifold's Mana? (Part 2)

Plus

4

Ṁ397

2027

64%

<1.0%

30%

1.0%-2.0%

5%

2.0%-3.0%

2%

>3.0%

Mannifold suffers from a problem that long term bets are not profitable due to the time of payout. To try to combat that, they recently implemented a loan feature that allows 1.5% loaned per day, on all positions on collateral.

I want to test if that loan feature is working. If it's working, Mannifold should have a very low discount rate, as this is free money.

Will resolve per data taken from the below market, using an average of data taken from 6/30/25, 12/31/25, 6/30/26, which I will annualize (per year interest rate). Adjustments will be made accordingly for figures maxing out at 99%.

https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/what-is-the-discount-rate-on-manifo-hC5yItnNgS

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@traders upgraded to plus liquidity

How does your analysis change if a significant fraction of people sell their profitable long-term positions well-prior to market close?

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 30% order

@WilliamGunn Then that indicates the discount rate is higher if people are selling vs waiting for the guaranteed payout later.

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