10 x State of AI Report 2024 Predictions about 2025

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resolved Oct 9

Resolved

YES

2. An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).

Resolved

YES

3. Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.

Resolved

YES

6. Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.

Resolved

7. Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.

Resolved

YES

5. An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.

Resolved

4. Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.

Resolved

10. A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.

Resolved

YES

9. A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.

Resolved

8. Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.

Resolved

N/A

1. A $10B+ investment from a sovereign state into a US large AI lab invokes national security review.

State of AI Report is published each year, and always carries 10 predictions that then get resolved in next year's report.

The above 10 questions will resolve according to YES/NO and N/A, in line with what the report does. I will strictly abide by their own ruling when I resolve, and apologize in advance om their behalf for any frustration you might have with their decision.