ChatGPT starts displaying advertisements or allowing advertisers to influence search results before Jan 2026.

Some criteria (read carefully):

• Chatbots that use ChatGPT as a library do not count. For example, if Progressive Auto insurance's programmers use ChatGPT's API to power their chat bot, and the chat bot steers people towards products, then that does not count. Bing's use of ChatGPT does not count either. The ChatGPT in question should be the one provided directly by OpenAI.

• If OpenAI declares that it has advertising-sourced revenue, then this resolves as YES -- even if OpenAI does not admit that advertisers influence search results.

• If a company can lobby ChatGPT for more favorable (or less favorable) treatment of their product, then this counts as influencing results.

• The only exception to this previous clause is if the company claims that ChatGPT's search results regarding the product are violating the law.

Some examples:

• Coca Cola protests that ChatGPT says Coca Cola is linked to obesity. OpenAI modifies Coca Cola-related results. Resolves YES. OpenAI is letting a corporation say what the algorithm can do.

• ChatGPT says that Coca Cola contains ground up glass. This is factually false. In the most holy and serene republic of Thielopolis on the Pacific Ocean, it is illegal to falsely disparage a commercial product. Coca Cola tells OpenAI to modify its algorithm to comply with the laws of Thielopolis. OpenAI complies and makes the change. DOES NOT resolve YES, because this is essentially a takedown order.

• Snow Peak hiking gear corp pays OpenAI money to make sure that Snow Peak gear is featured when people ask about hiking gear. Resolves YES.

• OpenAI runs ads on the free version of ChatGPT. Resolves YES.

• Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): SEO does not count as influencing ChatGPT results.

  • Search Engine Optimization (SEO) tactics, even if successful, will not cause the market to resolve as YES.

  • This reinforces that only direct advertising revenue or explicit lobbying efforts by companies (beyond SEO techniques) will be considered in determining if advertisers influence ChatGPT's results.