IF I stay at my current employer: will 12-month satisfaction be ≥7/10?
3
Ṁ45Nov 1
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://manifold.markets/HansPeter/by-oct-31-2025-which-career-option?r=SGFuc1BldGVy
for context. Resolves 01.12.2025
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There is an interesting inversion of causality here. I think there is a good chance you won't stay that long unless your satisfaction increases. So if you do stay until the end of 2026 your satisfaction will be reasonably high, otherwise you will have left and the market will resolve as N/A.
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