In other words, someone that is 80 years old in 2022 will live 50 years more
For cases of cryogenic or similar reanimation the "age counter" will pause while the individual is considered dead
In this market we're only considering biological humans, and time will be measured in an objective scale such as UTC, so a digital mind with subjective experience of 130 years does not count
1,000
3.00This question requires someone who were born in 1942 or before to make it to 2072. To be fair, this question is more plausible than the other one which asks about a 140-year-old person in 2072, but I still don't think it is very likely, even using the rather optimistic prediction that aging will be cured sometimes in 2050s(or even, in 2040s with AGI) made by people here, people of this age group may still not stand a chance. Below is why:
before such cures are available, people are likely to age in a conventional pace
anti-aging therapies are likely to benefit younger people first(again, using the predictions here)
these people would be centenarians(and there might not be many of them) when such cure is available even in the "aging will be cured in 2040s with AGI" scenario
people above 100 have a very high mortality rate, and so far there's only one person who has made it to 120s.
On the other hand, it is predicted by people here that a senolytic drug will hit the market before 2033, it is even predicted that senolytics will be used medically on human for some purposes before 2028, and an effective anti-aging therapy will be developed in 2030s as well. But even with all these good news, considering the 2. stated above, the benefits brought by these therapies to those born in 1940s and are still alive now would be more limited.
Considering these reasons, it is unlikely that these people would benefit much even if the predictions on anti-aging by people in Manifold Market are right, thus making this question unlikely resolved as yes. But again, let's see if collective intelligence of people here will prove me wrong.
