Will home prices revert to pre-2020 levels?
Will home prices revert to pre-2020 levels?
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A fall from 293 to 215 is a 27% drop, which seems very unlikely to me (as much as this Georgist, Yimby, soon-to-be-first-time-homebuyer would love to see it happen!!) based on the spread of forecasts by big research firms such as the ones listed in this article: https://fortune.com/2023/05/10/housing-market-home-price-predictions/. A reduction like that would sadly probably only result from some kind of really massive economic catastrophe (the bottom of the post-2007 housing market was a similar ~27% peak-to-trough drop).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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