Ever is a long time.

@GeorgeVii Whose numbers will you use to resolve this? Official CCP numbers are often heavily manipulated, so they could be very different from a more reliable source

This is all but off the table now.

I propose this market should resolve NO if China is passed as the second largest economy.

@BTE Yeah sounds reasonable.

50 percent drop in population is the base case for China over the next 50 years. Most of their real economic growth over the last 50 years has been in the assembly of things with components designed and made elsewhere. That is not the recipe for sustaining growth to catch the US, nor is it even enough to take care of the rapidly aging and retiring population. https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2190995/chinas-population-could-halve-within-next-45-years-new-study-warns

@BTE Where did you get the 50% figure from?

UN estimate the following as of 2022:

The UN forecasts that China's population will decline from 1.426 billion this year to 1.313 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100.

This market can never resolve NO, so seems like a good bet to me!

@IsaacKing I don't like the fact that there is no clear way to resolve NO. But this is still impossible due to basic population dynamics. They are much more likely to fall back to #3 sometime in the next 15 years. Arguments to the contrary assume the past growth is sustainable indefinitely, which is already not the case.