This market is centered around whether the paid incentive schemes offered by Elon Musk's America PAC, which include cash payments for petition signatures, friend referrals, and million-dollar "giveaways," will ultimately be ruled illegal by a U.S. legal authority. Specifically, we are looking at actions such as:
Paid incentives include:
Direct payments to individuals for signing petitions
Cash incentives for referring friends
Million dollar "giveaways" tied to political actions or advocacy
For this market, "ruled illegal" means that a U.S. court, regulatory body, or equivalent authority issues a formal ruling that declares one or more of these actions violate existing laws (e.g., federal or state election laws, campaign finance regulations, anti-corruption statutes, etc.).
Legal Process Consideration:
If any of the actions mentioned above are challenged in court, and a ruling is made that these activities are unlawful, I will wait for the final resolution of any legal appeals before resolving this market. If an initial ruling is overturned or amended upon appeal, the market will remain unresolved until the final ruling is issued.
1,000
3.00You going to resolve this?
@StCredZero no, there are other paid incentives that can be ruled illegal, and there are other ways the lottery can be ruled illegal
This market was created before that specific case and is not related directly to that specific case
@Gen Funnily enough this is related to it being an illegal lottery, unrelated to election laws. I suspect this was the quickest/easiest way to shut them down or delay until the election is over but they clearly take issue with the election influence as well
Larry Krasner
District Attorney of Philadelphia
“The Philadelphia District Attorney is charged with protecting the public from public nuisances and unfair trade practices, including illegal lotteries.”
“The DA is also charged with protecting the public from interference with the integrity of elections,”
How do people feel about including the non-cash offers, i.e. entry to Elon musk’s speaking event?
Is that even hosted by America PAC? This seems almost certainly illegal as it requires people to have both signed the petition (legal) and voted (illegal)
It isn’t obvious to me if I have clearly excluded this in the description, so lmk what you think. I want to make a ruling on it asap before it is legally challenged.
@Gen I would make that a separate market, as I specifically chose to bet in this one based on whether or not the paid incentives would be ruled illegal, such as the petition payments, the giveaway lotteries, etc.
@dieselbaby1337 ok, I'm excluding them -- This market will only count things mentioned in the description or other variations of those exact things, i.e. in the next few days they do a different lottery or cash payment scheme