Word:_i_ing
Incorrect guesses:4/6:
E,A,R,D
The banner art might not be up to date!
Background Hangman is a word guessing game where players try to guess a hidden word one letter at a time. Each incorrect guess results in drawing part of a hanging stick figure. The game is lost if the figure is completed (typically after 6 wrong guesses) before the word is solved.
Resolution Criteria
Every day, at ~8am UTC+1 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.
Each letter in the alphabet (A-Z) will resolve YES if it appears in the hidden word, NO if it does not appear in the word.
I will reveal the hidden word and mark resolutions of the letter that didn't get resolved after the game concludes.
The game concludes when either:
The word is successfully guessed (all letters revealed)
The hangman figure is completed (6 incorrect guesses)
Capitalization is ignored - guessing 'a' or 'A' counts as the same letter.
If a letter appears multiple times in the word, guessing that letter once reveals all instances.
Considerations
The hidden word will be in English and contain only letters (no numbers, spaces, or special characters).
I obviously won't bet on this market.
1,000
3.00@JussiVilleHeiskanen One might say that the double I as the lone vowels already qualify as making it a hard word
Day 8
Word State
_ I _ I N GGuesses
4 out of 6 incorrect guesses:
E ❌ A ❌ I ✅ N ✅ G ✅ R ❌ D ❌
Art
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=========Possible Words (54 total)
living timing citing hiking mixing fixing filing wiping viking biting piling biking liking piping sizing siting tiling miming oiling kiting jiving liming wiling wising vibing liping yijing biling wiking miking vising xiling jibing yiming yixing ximing siming tiying lising piking hising witing wiving cising liling hiving vicing miting wifing siking siping sixing fifing fiking
Will Probability
I think this is a reasonably thinned list:
living timing citing hiking mixing fixing filing wiping viking biting piling biking liking piping sizing tiling miming oiling kiting jiving wising vibing
Which gives us these letter frequencies (courtesy of https://www.dcode.fr/frequency-analysis):
If there is an L, we narrow to 6 words. If there is no L, we narrow to 16 words, and T and K are equally likely. (M is represented twice in "miming".) Either way, things are looking iffy for us.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen It's the percent of total letters in the set, not the percent of words containing those letters. I just used a quick and dirty frequency analysis tool that doesn't know what words are.
@GastonKessler So much for my theory that the word was “hiding” in plain sight. I thought it was suspicious that the concealed word was repeatedly described as “hidden” instead of “secret” in the description
@JimHays You know? To hell with math at this point. The k-words seem like they are commonly known and are the "sporty" words. I'll put a few chips on that letter. Who else thinks I'm on to something?
@JimHays I suppose from my point of view, if K is truly there, especially in slot 3, the chance of HIKING goes up dramatically, and I need to hedge my H bet a little.
Day 7
Word State
_ I _ I N GGuesses
E ❌ A ❌ I ✅ N ✅ G ✅ R ❌
Art
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=========Possible Words
living timing hiding citing hiking mixing fixing filing wiping viking biting diving piling biking liking siding piping sizing siting biding tiling miming dicing oiling kiting tiding jiving liming wiling diming wising vibing liping yijing biling wiking diking miking vising xiling jibing yiming yixing viding ximing siming tiying lising piking hising witing wiving cising liling hiving diting vicing miting wifing siking siping sixing fifing fiking
Will Probability
Have we agreed on what words we think are actually "doable"? My proposal:
Normal words: living timing hiding citing hiking mixing fixing filing wiping viking biting diving piling biking liking siding piping sizing biding tiling miming dicing oiling kiting jiving
Borderline words: vibing, diming ("nickel and"?), wifing ("what is it about Elon Musk that makes him insist on wifing every supermodel he meets?")
Not words: siting ("I am planning on siting the rectory next to the church" said no one ever) tiding ("sorry guv'nor, I bring only one good tiding for you and your king today" get out of here) liming wiling wising liping yijing biling wiking diking miking vising xiling jibing yiming yixing viding ximing siming tiying lising piking hising witing wiving cising liling hiving diting vicing miting siking siping sixing fifing fiking
@fwbt This is a very real part of the game now. I don't think there's an agreement between traders on what words are likely, and that's where we are butting heads against each other's limit orders.
@fwbt I'm not completely sure, but would piking mean attacking with a pike (equivalent to spearing, axing, knifing etc.), would vicing mean engaging in vices, and would siking be tricking someone and yelling "sike!"?
@TheAllMemeingEye I mean for sure all the things on the word list ended up there for some reason, but also a uniform probability distribution over these candidates is clearly a poor strategy. Assigning 0% to the “not words” is a much improved model over equal weighting
@fwbt I think miming is actually impossible to get so would man the creator lied when he said it was doable
@TheAllMemeingEye I looked it up, "siking" is a Middle English word for "sighing" or an old name for Xi'an, China. I would not be best pleased if it's the solution. In concrete terms the classification is as much about what letters to bet on and as it is about what words would lead to some "constructive criticism" to OP about how they use the word "doable" in future.