Mystery Markets will be judged on an objective, random criteria (e.g. a random number generator, the color of the 5th car I see after posting this, multiple stacked RNG generators, how many traders/comments a market gets, etc.). Each Mystery Market lasts for a week, and extra hints (decided on before each Mystery Market is opened) are released periodically (once a day, once every two days, etc. Depends on the market). Each Mystery Market will have different hints and resolution criteria. The final resolution criteria and result will be revealed at the end of the market. Hints will give you more information to place bets with, but will not necessarily reveal the criteria or exact probability by the end of the market. Please leave a comment if you have questions or see ambiguity in any hints. I will do my best to clear up any confusion.
For this market:
Hint #1: The resolution depends on 12 other markets.
Hint #2: Specifically which 12 other markets this resolution depends on changes over time.
Hint #3: The resolution involves adding trader counts.
Hint #4: The resolution involves checking if a final value is greater or less than 100.
Hint #5: The resolution involves dividing a value by a prime number.
Hint #6: The prime number is very likely to be less than 10.
1,000
3.00@Gameknight I can't speak for everyone, but my 2 cents:
MMs are a fun idea, and I'm excited to see where this goes!
I hadn't seen the hints were added. (Maybe I need to change a setting, or you could post comments.)
With just the current information, I have no reason to believe the probability is above or below 50%, so have no reason to trade other than my current limit orders.
@wolf The hints are always at the bottom of the description. Sorry if that was unclear. Maybe you need to reload the page for it to work?
@Gameknight It was clear where the hints are. The issue, for me at least, was that I hadn't come to look since they were posted. Maybe that's just me being dumb, but I just wanted to drop some thoughts here, because the market isn't getting much attention. Feel free to ignore me.
I'm hoping this works out for ya.
@wolf Hmm, I see. Got it.
I'll see if I can come up with a better way to incentivize participation throughout MMs rather than just at the end.
@Gameknight Perhaps start with a set of N different resolution criteria. Let's say N = 10 for this example. All 10 criteria are known and are plain as day to see. They can resolve to criteria that evolve over time if you want too, much like the ones for this market. Each day, eliminate a random criterion. When only 1 criterion remains, the market resolves. It could resolve right on the spot when the 2nd to last is eliminated, or it can resolve later than that if the criterion is an evolving-over-time one.
Also, consider pinging the Manifold "user" FairlyRandom to be the RNG.
@Quroe That's a very interesting idea. I've never considered turning the mystery from "what is the criteria" to "which criteria is the real one". I'll see what I can do with that. I'll also take a look at FairlyRandom, I think I've seen the name before...
@Gameknight Here is the sandbox market to learn how it works.