Will a law be passed to remove taxes on overtime pay by 2028?

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Ṁ185

2029

21%

chance

ALL

Resolves to "yes" if a law is passed that removes taxes on overtime pay.

See: https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-overtime-tax-exemption/

Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * A law removing overtime taxes for specific sectors will qualify for a YES resolution, even if not all sectors are covered.
- The removal of taxes must be complete for the affected overtime pay. A law introducing a graduated tax or only partially reducing taxes on overtime (e.g., based on income, where some tax on overtime remains) will not qualify for a YES resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Quick update: as per the clarification I posted earlier, I'm still not considering the obbb graduated tax on overtime "no taxes on overtime"

bought Ṁ10 YES

What if the bill only exempts part of overtime, e.g. for certain occupations or if the exemption phases out at higher incomes?

@MaxGhenis if the bill splits by sector, then it still removes taxes on overtime (for the affected sector). If the bill splits by income that's there's still a (graduated) tax on overtime work.

Willing to consider counter arguments though

bought Ṁ125 NO

Registering an initial prediction of P[Trump is elected] \* P[Trump passes no-tax on tips] as being no greater than 0.5 \* 0.5 . Actual chances are probably lower than that but I'll let more informed traders scoop up some liquidity.

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