Context
The proposal to dolarize Argentina's economy has been brought to the forefront by presidential candidate Javier Milei. He argues that dolarization would end the country's inflation problem and proposes to demolish the Central Bank. However, economists and analysts have raised concerns about the feasibility, potential risks, and benefits of such a move. The political landscape, economic conditions, and social implications make this a complex and contentious issue.
Resolution Criteria
The prediction market will resolve in favor of "Yes" if Argentina officially adopts the U.S. dollar as its primary currency, replacing the Argentine peso, before the end of the year 2027.
Sources
1,000
3.00Just to note that the title is a bit confusing because, weirdly enough, it seems to "dollarize" actually does not mean to adopt the U.S. dollar as it's primary currency but just to give up on your national currency being the main one being held and used (or fully give up on it in the case of "full dollarization"). That is, whether the non-national currency used is the U.S. dollar, Euro, or a crypto doesn't matter.
I don't expect Argentina is likely to "officially adopt the dollar as its primary currency", but otoh it's somewhat likely that it will be the main currency held by people and even used because it will be allowed to be used more and more. I'm assuming that still resolves no, right?
@eightyhi Wow that is ridiculous, I think even if he committed 95% of his efforts to getting this done it would take more than a year..
@eightyhi Too bad only US residents are currently accepted by Kalshi. Argentina is likely to have fully dollarized before Kalshi comes to Quebec (as in both things will happen at t =+\infty)
@FranklinBaldo So people are seriously predicting 40% probability that Argentina switches to using US dollars only as its currency?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_use_of_the_U.S._dollar currently no major countries are doing that and even pegs are rare
@FranklinBaldo Yes, as long as it is interpreted as Argentina fully switching over to the US dollar with the Peso either disappearing or at least mostly falling out of use. On the other hand pegging the peso to the dollar or to a basket of currencies (maybe including bitcoin) seems more likely, though still probably high at 33%. We need to properly estimate the base rate.
Ecuador is the only country with a relatively large population who uses the US dollar as legal tender (US excluded ofc): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exchange_rate_regime