What will be the *first* ELO Rating of Claude 3.5 Opus in the LMSYS Arena?
Basic
14
Ṁ2176Dec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
1270-1289
10%
1290-1309
87%
1310+
The FIRST appearance on the LMSYS Arena leaderboard will count unambiguously.
For context:
Opus has an ELO of 1247
3.5 Sonnet has an ELO of 1271
GPT-4o has an ELO of 1287
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
32% chance
What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release?
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
70% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 1/3 of the time?
68% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?
7% chance
Llama 3 405B ELO on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard 2 weeks after first appearance?
When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?
ELO of GPT-4.5 on LLM arena (1 month after release)
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
13% chance
What organization will have the highest ELO score in the LMSYS Org Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of Dec, 2024?