What will be the *first* ELO Rating of Claude 3.5 Opus in the LMSYS Arena?
Basic
14
Ṁ2176Dec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
1270-1289
10%
1290-1309
87%
1310+
The FIRST appearance on the LMSYS Arena leaderboard will count unambiguously.
For context:
Opus has an ELO of 1247
3.5 Sonnet has an ELO of 1271
GPT-4o has an ELO of 1287
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Which will be released first: Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4.0 Sonnet?
What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release?
Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?
6% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
10% chance
ELO of GPT-4.5 on LLM arena (1 month after release)
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
13% chance
Llama 3 405B ELO on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard 2 weeks after first appearance?
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
39% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 1/3 of the time?
32% chance