@Stralor oops got a bit excited

Based on https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-add-a-sell-button-for we should just make the liquidity on markets like this a lot higher as an incentive to the devs 😂

Will Manifold add a sell button for multiple choice questions by end of August?

Resolved YES. The new multiple choice questions are still a work-in-progress. Manifold is planning to add a button to easily sell soon. Until then, you can buy a number of NO shares equal to your YES shares (or vice versa) and it will exchange them for that amount of mana. Resolves YES if there is a feature to sell shares in a multiple choice question before the end of August (even if it is later removed). The ability to buy opposite shares and redeem them does not count. It must be supported in the Manifold interface (API support alone does not count). This is one of the features that Manifold has said they plan for multiple choice: Adding new answers (Done!) Sell button An option for independent answers (that don't sum to 100%) - https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-add-multiple-choice-w

Arbitrage: the sum of the probability of dates before 2024 in this market (currently 40%) and the question in the embedded market (currently 59%) are asking about the same thing. That's a difference of 19 percentage points, so one of these markets is way off.

Edit: never mind, they're not quite predicting the same thing. This market should definitely be lower than the embedded one.

@evergreenemily To be fair, the requirements in this market are more strict: it has to apply to existing markets.

@FlorisvanDoorn Ah, gotcha. I think this one being lower makes sense, then - though I also think its new cumulative probability of 51% is still accurate.

@FlorisvanDoorn
Oh that does change my prediction now I realize it. So far, major new features introduced have mostly not applied to markets created before the new feature.

@Joshua See my comment below about this. I think that something like this that can be done in a backward compatible way, will be added to existing markets.
For example, I believe that the first attempt of the feature to allow adding answers to markets (that was only live for a few hours, because you could make free mana with it) was enabled for existing markets.

@FlorisvanDoorn Yeah, I don't see any reason this feature wouldn't work for existing markets.

Please resolve June-July 2023 to NO

@JoshuaWilkes I hope you're joking :-)

@FlorisvanDoorn I am

Although

After my joke I did notice what I think is a flaw in your description

Based on how Manifold seems to roll out new functionality out it's very plausible that 'partially resolve' will only be available on markets created after the roll out date.

This seems to create some risk that you'd have to resolve NO when the spirit of the question has been met.

@JoshuaWilkes I am aware of this possibility, and this choice was deliberate.
The question I really wanted to ask is whether I will be able to partially resolve some of my own markets that I've already created, and so this market reflects that.

That said, I think that some of the new functionalities were added only to newly created markets because they were not backwards compatible: (1) markets where you could bet NO used a different formula for shares, and (2) markets where you can add answers require and "other" answer. In both cases existing markets couldn't just be transferred to the new system. I think this feature is different, and could equally well be added to existing markets (at least, as far as I can see).

If you think it's good, I can add the word "existing" to the title: "[...] resolve existing multiple choice markets"

@FlorisvanDoorn I don't particularly think that's necessary. People can and should read the description and it didn't stop me betting. I was just airing something in case you hadn't thought of it

Soon, I hope. I'd really like to be able to do this.

@evergreenemily get a dev to bet NO on June/July and you'll be golden for August. 🙃

@evergreenemily This feature would also be very useful for this market 😄

answers further in the future have longer time intervals!

yesss another creator on team geometric scaling!

Why do people think this is likely so soon? This suggestion has been made at least a year ago I think, and I think it's good but far from the most important improvement to multiple choice.