The Red Bull F1 team has a history of many replacements of its drivers during the racing season. Will Liam Lawson be the next one? How long will he last in his role?
Answers resolve as he meets the deadlines, if he finishes 10 races at red bull, then 10 races resolves yes, even if he's replaced between race 10 and 11.
Update 2025-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Driver Seat Focus: The prediction market is solely based on Lawson retaining his seat at Red Bull.
Replacement Clause: If Lawson is replaced (e.g. by Yuki) at any point, all subsequent outcomes are automatically resolved as No.
No Reentry Provision: The market does not become conditional on him potentially being swapped back in.
1,000
3.00To make it very clear. This is meant to be for his driver seat at Red Bull, if he gets replaced by Yuki then all the further answers get resolved No. E.g. If he gets replaced on the 3rd race, then 10 races, and summer break, and 2026 etc will all get resolved No. The market is not conditional on him getting swapped back in.
I should have added a 'lasts longer then a lettuce' option
@AlexanderTheGreater They do, resolve independantly.
I did notice I put in the text that if he makes 10 races, then it resolves Yes, so all the options resolve Yes if he lasts that long. Which is slightly counter intuitive for how I phrased the title, so I just rephrased it.
And yes, I think the odds are wrong at the moment, partly because they've only had 2 people bet on the question, so you can correct the odds.