Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
Plus
17
Ṁ12k2026
4%
United States
6%
Russia
1.7%
United Kingdom
3%
France
3%
China
4%
India
6%
Pakistan
4%
North Korea
6%
Israel
3%
Iran
3%
[Other country not listed above]
3%
[Non-state actor]
3%
[Unattributed as of close time]
Tests, accidental detonations, and peaceful nuclear explosions are not included. During 2025, UTC time.
The weapon must detonate to be included.
2024 version: /EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-detonate-a-nuc
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The intent here is that this list is exhaustive; if there is an offensive nuclear detonation, at least one of the categories can resolve positively. That is: "country" and "non-state actor" include all possible actors; between that and "unattributed", something can resolve positively.
Did I miss anything there? Any edge cases worth worrying about?
opened a Ṁ5 YES at 1.0% order
Extraterrestrial Aliens.
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