Conditional on Aella getting new cavities, will 10000+ people get Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment?
Conditional on Aella getting new cavities, will 10000+ people get Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment?
Plus
20
Ṁ45092030
33%
Aella gets new cavities; >= 10000 people get treatment
7%
Aella gets new cavities; < 10000 people get treatment
49%
Aella does not get new cavities; >= 10000 people get treatment
11%
Aella does not get new cavities; < 10000 people get treatment
This is a joint market for the outcome of these two markets:
[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?83%
Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?21%
It resolves according to how the two linked markets resolve.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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