Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025
Plus
23
Ṁ9452026
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Lost for any reason. Within 2025 calendar year.
Counts
Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary
Does not count
Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other
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Looks like the US has written off 7 F-35's over the course of 10 years (probably this is an undercount). I presume that implies a 70% chance of losing a jet any one year
@QuestionableQuentin That's hilarious - I had some bike work to do at the time. Here is the correct link: https://www.f-16.net/aircraft-database/F-35/mishaps-and-accidents/year/2024/
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