US adopts pharmaceutical reciprocity with the UK, some/all of the EU, Japan, or Australia before 2035
Basic
6
Ṁ143
2035
12%
chance

A drug approved in one of those countries has a significantly accellerated path to approval in the US. It doesn't have to be immediate.

In addition to the legal changes, this also requires at least 2 drugs to have gone through this accellerated approval process to become available in the US.

I realize this may be hard to judge. I will be relatively strict

  • If no legal changes from today, resolves NO

  • If there is a clear simple policy - "If it's okay in <other country>, it's okay in the US with minimal checks (<1 year average for first 3 drugs), YES

  • if "we allow some accelerated data sharing allowed to faciliate the process" or similar process which only applies to some partners or some parts of the process, such taht the first 3 drugs on average take >=1 year for approval, then NO

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
reposted

Gimme those EU Aussie Drugs yo

Unfortunately, this is highly unlikely even with significant structural change. My understanding from talking to people who have worked in pharma and biotech is that the US foots much of the bill for drug research, in both time and money. FDA approval often opens the doors elsewhere because of how long, expensive, and stringent it is, even though the US is generally considered to be more prescription-friendly than most places. And while handing off these costs would be beneficial, it's unlikely that others would willingly take them up.

Moreover, it's not aligned culturally with historical US-international relations; in many cases the US considers itself exceptionalist and won't accept others' standards or share burden equally (see airplane security, travel visas, economic treaties, nuclear and military development, etc.).

So, even if another government reliably enforces greater due diligence, I believe it's unlikely the US will accept reciprocity.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules