10B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030 | Manifold

10B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030

Basic

3

Ṁ23

2030

33%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

One of the 2023 fellows will have founded a company with valuation >10B by 2030

Note: it should be a single company; two fellows companies of 5B each does not count.

The list:

Akshaya Dinesh: Spellbound

Alex Singer: Voldex

Ethan Thornton: Mach Industries

Hugo Chrost: Solvemed

Ian Michael Brock: Dream Hustle Code

Jake Adler: Neusleep

John Guibas: Succinct

John McElhone: CropSafe

Kai Micah Mills: Cryopets

Kesava Kirupa Dinakaran: Luminai

Kian Sadeghi: Nucleus Genomics

Markie Wagner: Delphi Labs

Michael Ioffe: Arist

Nik Shevchenko: WeLoveNoCode

Quinn Favret: Tavus

Reiss Jones: Macro Energy

Samarth Athreya: Axiome

Sara Du: Mutiny

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230208005685/en/Thiel-Foundation-Announces-Next-Thiel-Fellow-Class

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20 new fellows plus of 251 previous fellows, and it looks like fewer than 5 have ever hit this adjusted valuation? So the base rate of having none is 0.98^20 = 0.666, so having some is 33%.

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