Will Amish fertility drop below 5 children per women by the end of 2040? | Manifold

Will Amish fertility drop below 5 children per women by the end of 2040?

Basic

1

Ṁ21

2041

59%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/1826626736140026126?s=19

Closes 6 months in to give time for the data to come out

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What if it drops below 5 and then rebounds?

That would count as dropping below 5, yes. That said, I'll only be considering sources that are published yearly, so if, say, the one-month fertility rate drops that low and then rebounds within the year, I won't pay any attention.

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Will I have at least one child by the end of 2035?

Will China have fewer than 8.5 million live births in 2024?

Will I have children by 2035?

When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?

Will in vitro fertilization become illegal or totally inaccessible in any state before 2030?

Will Canadas overall fertility rate increase in the next decade?

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Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?

By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children?

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