Copied from SirCryptomind's original market which resolved N/A.
Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful launches in 2024?
Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.
Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)
LAUNCH COUNT
January: 10
February: TBD
March: TBD
April: TBD
May: TBD
June: TBD
July: TBD
August: TBD
September: TBD
October: TBD
November: TBD
December: TBD
TOTAL: 10
NOTES:
CLARIFICATIONS:
1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.
@Eliza
As posted on other market, 120 reached with 9-13 launch a couple of days ago.
https://manifold.markets/DistinctlySkeptical/will-spacex-achieve-120-successful
115 F9 but one unsuccessful (286 through 400 with no 354 being the failure 12 July 2024)
2 Falcon heavy
4 Starship
Totals 121 launches 120 successful
Starlink 12-1 has also launched since then so currently 121 successful
@ChristopherRandles based on the comment section below I think I am officially deferring to the resolution of the other market. But if SirCryptomind doesn't resolve within another few days or explain why not, we can re-evaluate.
@Eliza not N/A it is not ambiguous, so what if there is a duplicate. There is arbitrage opportunities and people who have accumulated good bets shouldn't have them N/A'd
@Eliza I'd say pledge to resolve the same, it's unfortunate having duplicates but there's no real reason to resolve it N/A