Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful Launches In 2024?
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Jan 1
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Copied from SirCryptomind's original market which resolved N/A.

Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful launches in 2024?

  • Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.

  • SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST

  • Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)

  • LAUNCH COUNT

    • January: 10

    • February: TBD

    • March: TBD

    • April: TBD

    • May: TBD

    • June: TBD

    • July: TBD

    • August: TBD

    • September: TBD

    • October: TBD

    • November: TBD

    • December: TBD

    • TOTAL: 10


NOTES:

CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.

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@Eliza
As posted on other market, 120 reached with 9-13 launch a couple of days ago.
https://manifold.markets/DistinctlySkeptical/will-spacex-achieve-120-successful

115 F9 but one unsuccessful (286 through 400 with no 354 being the failure 12 July 2024)
2 Falcon heavy
4 Starship

Totals 121 launches 120 successful

Starlink 12-1 has also launched since then so currently 121 successful

@ChristopherRandles based on the comment section below I think I am officially deferring to the resolution of the other market. But if SirCryptomind doesn't resolve within another few days or explain why not, we can re-evaluate.

I tried to unsubsidize this for now being a dupe again, but the site is broken and won't let me unsubsidize it.

It looks like Sir Cryptomind reopened his version of this market. What should we do? Pledge to resolve the exact same ("this is now a dupe") or N/A? I should probably unlist this market so random fans find his instead.

@Eliza not N/A it is not ambiguous, so what if there is a duplicate. There is arbitrage opportunities and people who have accumulated good bets shouldn't have them N/A'd

@Eliza I'd say pledge to resolve the same, it's unfortunate having duplicates but there's no real reason to resolve it N/A

@Nat Thanks to both of you for the input. I will resolve the same as SirCryptomind.

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