We are assuming that political institutions would stay constant (unless changed by the chosen person). I.e. if you are American, then you would be choosing between having Xi or Trump as your president.
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3.00@ProjectVictory thanks for the suggestion.
1. to be clear, the question is about who you want to be the head of government for YOUR country, indexed to the person answering.
I'm not really interested in the opinions of trump supporters here, since there's presumably no dilemma (of course they'd choose Trump). I was more curious about people who think both options are bad, and who they think is less bad.
@MalachiteEagle I don't really know much about him, so I can't say. If my impression that he doesn't do much is correct, then I will take a president that does nothing over Trump (and probably Xi)? But this is very low confidence.
Xi would make a horrible US President but based on economic growth, I'd prefer someone like Xi who's economy has averaged 7.5% GDP growth since 2012 while the US averaged 2.2%. Trump's new ambitions to reshape the US economy seem to be at odds with his chaotic temperament and his persistent focus on personal grift. Xi is stable.
@becauseyoudo while I agree that a steady hand and predictability is good for economic growth, it's alsomuch easier for a developing economy like China's to grow. Rural China is still poor and catching up is much easier than growing when you are the richest economy (excluding tiny countries). There is even an argument to be made that the Chinese economy grew so much despite, not because, of the CCP: https://youtu.be/goEU7C1xmis?si=eDAHK1yayYlFZD9i
@AlexanderTheGreater In my experience, leadership temperament is multiplier for policy success (−1 ≤ β ≤ 1). Dikötter's analysis seems outdated and underdeveloped.
@becauseyoudo very much agreed on the leadership temperament. That's why we saw greater growth in China from Deng on till Xi started messing more with the market which is in sync with Dikötter's claims
Edit: to be clear I'm not arguing that Trump is better than Xi for the economy, I'm just making the point that it's easier to look good in a developing country. IMO just getting out of the way and investing in education gets things done.
@CraigTalbert I don't get the argument for Trump. Value-wise, I don't think Trump is any better than Xi
I don't think Trump would lift a finger to help Xinjiang or give one damn about Hong Kong democracy. Maybe he's slightly less likely to invade Taiwan? But it's not obvious. So it just comes down to the fact that Xi probably wouldn't crash the world economy, or cancel PEPFAR.
What's the worst that could happen with Xi as US president? He might threaten to invade neighbours? He might make the US more authoritarian? He might send political dissidents to foreign prison camps?
@EdisonYi what makes this question hard to reason about is that the rest of the system would stay the same. Xi has seemingly unlimited control and a massive surveillance system that was put into place over many years. The US president doesn't have that. I think the thought experiment of imaging Trump in as Xi, as you did, is very useful one.