/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h

Sorry, I'm not understanding this talk about the "population counter run in reverse". Is this a bet on 2035 population being lower than 2045 population? Or a bet on the population in any give week before 2035 having a lower population than the preceding week? Or something else?

@jonsimon The bet is whether before the end of 2035 there's any 7 day period where the population is lower at the end than at the start. There was more discussion here:

@StevenK Makes sense, thanks!

So, some people are reading this as "Will a credible population counter run in reverse to the point that the population at the end of the week is lower than the start (7 day rolling, not Sunday to Sunday)" and some people are reading this as "Will a credible population counter run in reverse to the point that the population at the end of a period of at least a week in length (7 day rolling, not Sunday to Sunday) is lower than the start."

I don't mind changing it to the second, and I think that might be a better market, but that strikes me as an important change. Comments?

@Duncan Never mind, these are equivalent.

Bought thinking I was on the 2025 market. 2035 might actually be right around 20-25%.