N/A if Labour do not win at least half the seats in the 2024 GE.
Subject to no N/A, it’s “yes” if Starmer is PM on 1st January 2028 and “no” otherwise.
The Diego atoll is hill Starmer is going to die on, he is the worst politician ever, truly amazing political malpractice
This market is currently saying there’s about a 10% chance of an election before this closes. Do people really think there’s a 20%+ chance that Labour oust Starmer for some other reason before then?
@DonutThrow the Tories had a smaller parliamentary majority, which I think makes it easier to remove the PM. Also, Johnson and Truss both had specific crises that resulted in their ousting. I reckon Starmer is a more mature, risk averse person than both of them.
But you have a point. These do feel like less stable times than the old days.
@Fion When it becomes obvious that Starmer's unpopularity is permanent there is no reason to keep him. Right now there is hope he can bounce back, in 9 months it will be obvious that he is not just unpopular but unlikeable.IMO ofc