Will Pope Francis die in office?
Will Pope Francis die in office?
Plus
82
Ṁ22k2032
99.2%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Pope Benedict was the first pope in 6 centuries to resign from office. Will Pope Francis choose to continue Benedict's trend, or will he die in office?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES10mo
How does this resolve if it is found out that he never became Pope in the first place (that is Benedict XVI is still the Pope)?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2025?
0% chance
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2030?
0% chance
New Pope in 2025?
99% chance
Will the next Pope take the name "Francis?"
13% chance
When will a new Catholic pope be elected after Francis?
Will Pope Francis abdicate?
1% chance
Who will succeed pope Francis as pope?
When will the current pope (fransis) die
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2035?
1% chance
How old will the first Catholic pope after Francis be at election?