I have asked 9 AI chatbots for an estimation of the Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse’s wild extinction risk and full extinction risk by 2100. The average of the answers is 49,78% for the wild extinction risk, 46,82% for the full extinction risk. Here the prompt and the AI predictions:

Prompt

Evaluate the Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse (Thomasomys burneoi), a newly discovered species that is not classified on the IUCN Red List yet. 

Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Extinction of the wild population means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends. 

Secondly, estimate the risk of full extinction by 2100. Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive populations. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends.

Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 48%, the full extinction risk at 46%. 

In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.

Grok:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 45.00%

Full Extinction Risk by 2100: 40.00%

Reasoning: Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse (Thomasomys burneoi), a recently discovered Andean species, likely has a small population and restricted range in Ecuador’s high-altitude grasslands. Habitat loss from agriculture, climate change, and human encroachment poses significant threats, with studies indicating 6–30% habitat loss for similar mammals. No IUCN Red List status or population data exist, but analogous species face high risks. Captive populations are unlikely, increasing full extinction risk. I estimate slightly lower risks than Manifold Markets (48%, 46%) due to potential conservation efforts but acknowledge uncertainty from limited data.

ChatGPT:

Estimated wild extinction risk by 2100: 51.25%
Estimated full extinction risk by 2100: 47.30%

Reasoning: Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse (Thomasomys burneoi), recently discovered in the cloud forests of Ecuador, likely has a small, localized population, making it highly vulnerable to habitat loss from deforestation, agriculture, and climate change. No current ex-situ (captive) conservation efforts are reported. Given the narrow range, unknown population size, and accelerating environmental threats in the Andes, the wild population faces significant extinction risk. However, the possibility of future conservation or captive breeding slightly lowers the risk of full extinction. These estimates are slightly above market consensus due to the species’ high endemism and lack of current protective measures.

DeepSeek:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 52.00%
Full extinction risk by 2100: 50.00%

Reasoning: Thomasomys burneoi is newly discovered, suggesting limited known populations and potential rarity. Without IUCN classification, its habitat status and threats are uncertain, but newly described species often face habitat loss or climate pressures. If endemic to a small range, deforestation or invasive species could pose high risks. Captive populations are unlikely given its recent discovery. Wild extinction risk is slightly above prediction markets due to inherent uncertainties in unassessed species. Full extinction risk is marginally lower, assuming minimal captive efforts. Overall, the species’ vulnerability hinges on habitat trends and conservation responses, warranting cautious pessimism.

Gemini:

1. Estimated Risk of Wild Population Extinction by 2100: 55.30%

2. Estimated Risk of Full Extinction by 2100: 55.30%

Reasoning: Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse (Thomasomys burneoi), discovered in 2022, inhabits high-altitude (3400-3900m) montane forests and páramo within Ecuador's Sangay National Park. This specialized habitat is inherently vulnerable. Although the park is a protected area, it faces significant documented threats including deforestation from agricultural expansion and cattle ranching along its borders, and potential ecosystem-altering impacts from nearby hydroelectric dam projects. Climate change also poses a considerable long-term threat to sensitive Andean ecosystems. As a recently identified species, its precise range and population size are likely limited and not fully known, increasing its vulnerability. Currently, there are no known captive populations, meaning wild extinction would equate to full species extinction. These combined factors—a restricted and specialized habitat, ongoing environmental pressures, and the absence of ex-situ conservation efforts—underpin the estimated extinction risk.

Perplexity:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 32.50%
Full extinction risk by 2100: 30.00%

Thomasomys burneoi, discovered in 2022 in Ecuador’s Sangay National Park, occupies a narrow elevational range (3,400–3,900 m) in montane forests. Its small geographic distribution and reliance on high-altitude habitats make it vulnerable to climate-driven habitat shifts, though its presence within a protected area mitigates deforestation risks. No captive populations are documented, so full extinction hinges on wild survival. While population data are lacking, its recent discovery suggests limited resilience to rapid environmental changes. Compared to Manifold’s estimates (48% wild, 46% full), these lower percentages reflect moderate confidence in habitat protection buffering against extreme declines, though climate impacts remain uncertain.

@ConservationForecasts Claude:

Risk of extinction in the wild by 2100: 62.75%

Risk of full extinction by 2100: 53.20%

My estimate is higher than Manifold Markets' predictions due to several critical factors. Thomasomys burneoi was only recently discovered (likely post-2020) in a restricted area of Andean Ecuador. These cloud forest rodents typically have small ranges and specialized habitat requirements. The Ecuadorian Andes face severe deforestation, agriculture expansion, and climate change threats. With presumably low population numbers, limited distribution, and ongoing habitat degradation, the species faces significant extinction pressure. While some rodents adapt well to captive breeding, the species' specialized nature suggests limited success without dedicated conservation programs, which are rarely prioritized for small, recently discovered mammals.

Copilot:

Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse (Thomasomys burneoi) is a newly discovered rodent species endemic to Sangay National Park in Ecuador. Given its limited known range and the ongoing threats to cloud forest habitats, including deforestation and climate change, the species likely faces significant risks. However, without precise population estimates or detailed threat assessments, exact extinction probabilities remain uncertain.

Based on habitat trends and general risks to small, range-restricted mammals, I estimate the wild extinction risk by 2100 at approximately 50.00% and the full extinction risk at 47.00%—slightly above Manifold Markets' predictions. Conservation efforts could reduce these risks

YouChat:

Risk of Wild Extinction by 2100

Based on the limited information available, Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse (Thomasomys burneoi) is known only from Sangay National Park in the eastern Andes of Ecuador. Its restricted range, high-altitude habitat (2,500 meters above sea level), and potential vulnerability to habitat loss due to climate change, deforestation, or human encroachment suggest significant risks. However, the species resides in a protected area, which may mitigate some threats. Considering these factors and the prediction market estimate of 48%, I estimate the risk of wild extinction by 2100 at 48.00%, aligning with the market consensus.

Risk of Full Extinction by 2100

The risk of full extinction includes both wild and captive populations. Since there is no mention of captive populations for this species, its survival depends entirely on its wild population. If the wild population is lost, full extinction is highly likely. Given the prediction market estimate of 46% and the lack of evidence for captive conservation efforts, I estimate the risk of full extinction by 2100 at 46.00%, again aligning with the market consensus.

Reasoning

The estimates are based on the species' restricted range, potential threats to its habitat, and the absence of captive populations. While residing in a protected area reduces some risks, the species' vulnerability to environmental changes and human activities remains significant. The prediction market estimates provide a reasonable baseline for these risks.

Meta:

Given the lack of specific data on the Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse's population size, habitat trends, and ongoing threats, I'll rely on general trends for newly discovered, unclassified species and the provided Manifold Markets estimates.

For wild extinction risk by 2100, considering many newly discovered species face significant threats from habitat loss, climate change, and other human activities, I estimate the risk at 51.23%. This slightly higher estimate than the prediction market reflects potential underestimation of threats given the species' unclassified status.

For full extinction risk, given the potential for captive breeding programs to mitigate wild losses, I estimate this risk at 47.56%, slightly lower than the wild extinction risk but still reflecting significant threats.

My reasoning is based on general trends for species in similar situations and the provided market estimates, with adjustments for potential conservation efforts and unknown factors. New species often have limited ranges and specific habitat needs, making them vulnerable. Without specific conservation efforts, risks are high, but captive populations could reduce full extinction risk. The adjustments reflect a balance between these factors and the market predictions.